Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +14 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -5.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -2.7 (+11.3) | 142.8 (-18.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.2 (+10.8) | 144.6 (-20.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.2 (+10.8) | 144.8 (-20.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.9 (+11.1) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-1 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#7) | 13.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#39) | 2.64 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#29) | 3.69 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#82) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 43.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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