Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +15 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -8.1 (-23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -7.8 (-22.8) | 149.6 (-14.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.9 (-20.9) | 152.6 (-17.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -6.6 (-21.6) | 154.1 (-19.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.9 (-20.9) | 152.0 (-17.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | -1.2 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#196) | -0.79 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#158) | -0.35 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.458 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 81.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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