Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -12.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -8.8 (+0.2) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -12.0 (-3.0) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -12.1 (-3.1) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -10.7 (-1.7) | 142.8 (-3.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#236) | -11.2 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#119) | -1.08 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | -1.90 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#40) | 0.436 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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