Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -13.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -7.7 (+0.3) | 125.1 (-1.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -8.3 (-0.3) | 122.6 (+1.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -8.9 (-0.9) | 123.8 (+0.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -8.6 (-0.6) | 124.5 (-0.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2020 | NIA 70 – 65 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#110) | -9.8 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#211) | -1.65 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#217) | -2.17 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#138) | 0.404 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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