Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | PITT +475 SJU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +2 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -4.7 (+6.7) | 143.0 (-27.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.6 (+6.6) | 143.5 (-27.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.3 (+6.3) | 142.1 (-26.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.8 (+5.8) | 143.0 (-27.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-11 |
| Home | 9-11 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#248) | 6.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#270) | 1.48 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#281) | 2.72 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#251) | 0.530 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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