Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -7.2 (+27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.7 (+24.7) | 132.5 (+5.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.8 (+23.8) | 133.9 (+4.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.9 (+23.9) | 133.8 (+4.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.1 (+24.1) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#95) | 16.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#58) | 2.24 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#27) | 3.45 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#63) | 0.626 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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