Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | ILST -230 BALL +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -6.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -5.2 (+15.8) | 161.3 (-12.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.4 (+17.6) | 157.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -5.1 (+15.9) | 158.6 (-9.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -5.2 (+15.8) | 162.4 (-13.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | BALL 83 – 69 ILST |
| Dec 13, 2020 | BALL 82 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#245) | -5.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#233) | -0.05 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#227) | -0.16 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#267) | 0.493 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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