Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | BALL -185 ILST +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -5.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.5 (+11.5) | 151.1 (-3.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.1 (+12.9) | 148.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.4 (+11.6) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.6 (+11.4) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | BALL 83 – 69 ILST |
| Dec 18, 2021 | ILST 85 – 64 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#172) | -0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#138) | 0.70 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#138) | 1.50 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#62) | 0.532 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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