Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -2.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -2.4 (-14.4) | 144.1 (+23.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -1.5 (-13.5) | 144.6 (+23.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -1.3 (-13.3) | 145.7 (+22.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.1 (-14.1) | 143.2 (+24.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#262) | -3.0 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#229) | 0.27 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#248) | -0.23 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#290) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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