Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -15.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -12.2 (-3.2) | 151.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -13.1 (-4.1) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.7 (-2.7) | 146.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -12.3 (-3.3) | 149.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 11-8 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#14) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#9) | 2.08 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.02 (#9) | 2.15 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#6) | 0.624 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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