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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–7 on winners spread MAE 8.3 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma State @ Houston +9.8 140.9 81% 61–72 ✓
LSU @ Louisiana Tech -12.8 144.8 14% 66–57 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky +5.9 146.8 74% 68–81 ✓
Southern Utah @ Michigan +11.3 143.6 82% 50–87 ✓
George Mason @ Georgia +2.6 141.2 62% 80–67 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Samford +5.1 145.6 72% 84–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Grand Canyon -3.9 136.4 33% 48–49 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Kansas +21.8 158.2 91% 72–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Arkansas +5.1 156.9 68% 89–81 ✗
Texas A&M @ Oregon State -5.2 136.2 27% 83–73 ✓
BYU @ Weber State -2.1 146.7 42% 89–71 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Pepperdine +7.6 149.1 76% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Missouri State +22.5 148.7 91% 70–106 ✓
Chattanooga @ Murray State +6.1 141.4 72% 76–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Alabama +17.5 154.3 89% 59–65 ✓
Auburn @ Saint Louis -2.6 149.3 38% 74–70 ✓
Utah State @ Iowa +0.2 155.0 49% 75–94 ✓
Baylor @ Oregon -4.9 139.0 20% 78–70 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington +2.0 147.0 61% 56–64 ✓
Portland State @ Cal State Northridge +5.2 129.4 66% 66–69 ✓
San Diego @ Northern Arizona -4.3 133.3 34% 69–59 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Nevada +5.8 148.0 73% 63–68 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa State +20.6 135.6 91% 54–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +14.3 145.1 88% 75–89 ✓
Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell +6.9 141.7 75% 62–70 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -11.5 130.9 16% 54–76 ✗
Fairfield @ Massachusetts +2.2 154.2 57% 73–77 ✓
Mercer @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.6 148.5 70% 55–67 ✓
Army @ Long Island University +0.8 139.9 47% 65–90 ✓
Air Force @ Arkansas State +3.1 133.6 62% 46–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +15.5 145.9 90% 54–62 ✓
Colgate @ Monmouth +12.7 143.5 86% 66–77 ✓
Robert Morris @ Bowling Green +10.6 153.5 84% 74–100 ✓
Northern Illinois @ UIC +7.2 130.4 77% 60–61 ✓
Texas @ Stanford -9.7 134.0 19% 60–53 ✓
UT Martin @ Drake +13.8 148.5 88% 54–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Middle Tennessee +6.9 139.6 76% 80–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ Oklahoma +17.7 131.7 90% 50–70 ✓
SMU @ New Mexico +2.3 158.0 57% 90–72 ✗
UC Davis @ Pacific +0.6 136.2 47% 77–67 ✗
Dartmouth @ California +10.6 136.8 83% 55–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Richmond +12.0 136.2 87% 61–67 ✓
Portland @ Montana State +12.4 146.7 87% 59–61 ✓
Montana @ Santa Clara +12.4 143.3 86% 64–79 ✓
Southern @ Kent State +8.3 136.2 77% 78–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Nebraska -3.5 146.1 32% 67–58 ✓
San Francisco @ Arizona State -1.3 134.6 40% 66–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.