Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | ISU -3500 SELA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +23 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -24.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -21.4 (+1.6) | 137.9 (-6.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -20.6 (+2.4) | 135.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -22.0 (+1.0) | 134.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -22.9 (+0.1) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#29) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#1) | -1.91 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.12 (#1) | -2.74 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#36) | 0.389 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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