Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -2.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -1.9 (-14.9) | 138.2 (+8.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -2.6 (-15.6) | 141.2 (+5.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -2.0 (-15.0) | 141.1 (+5.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -2.6 (-15.6) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-13 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L12 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#164) | 2.6 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#200) | -0.22 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#184) | -0.22 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#180) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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