Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | OU -20.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -21.7 (-1.7) | 134.0 (-14.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -17.7 (+2.3) | 131.7 (-11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -18.8 (+1.2) | 132.1 (-12.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -19.7 (+0.3) | 133.0 (-13.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#35) | -5.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#39) | -0.95 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#34) | -0.98 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#46) | 0.453 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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