Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -9.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -10.4 (-4.4) | 147.6 (+12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -7.6 (-1.6) | 149.1 (+10.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -7.9 (-1.9) | 149.5 (+10.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -7.2 (-1.2) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#264) | -9.7 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#242) | -1.52 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#242) | -2.52 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#266) | 0.431 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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