Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.4 (-13.4) | 151.6 (+18.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.1 (-13.1) | 156.9 (+13.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.9 (-11.9) | 157.6 (+12.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.9 (-12.9) | 156.5 (+13.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#64) | 3.5 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#34) | 0.53 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#40) | 0.66 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#45) | 0.545 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 81.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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