Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | LIU -120 ARMY +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -0.6 (+25.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -0.8 (+25.8) | 141.2 (+13.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -0.8 (+24.2) | 139.9 (+15.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -1.1 (+23.9) | 139.8 (+15.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -0.3 (+24.7) | 141.7 (+13.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#301) | -2.9 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#335) | -0.71 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#332) | -1.42 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#286) | 0.478 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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