Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -10.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -9.2 (-3.2) | 132.6 (-16.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -10.6 (-4.6) | 136.8 (-20.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -10.3 (-4.3) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -10.6 (-4.6) | 137.2 (-21.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 5-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | -3.5 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#169) | -0.94 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#142) | -0.93 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#161) | 0.476 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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