Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -12.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.1 (-0.9) | 138.4 (+9.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -4.9 (-3.1) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.2 (-1.8) | 137.1 (+10.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.6 (-1.4) | 139.3 (+8.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#101) | 21.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#152) | 4.44 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | 7.01 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.646 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 27.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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