Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +18 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -2.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.1 (-20.1) | 159.8 (+2.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.2 (-17.8) | 156.7 (+5.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.3 (-20.3) | 158.0 (+4.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -1.9 (-19.9) | 160.2 (+1.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2022 | UNM 84 – 63 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | 3.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#165) | 0.31 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#162) | 0.40 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#169) | 0.495 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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