Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -4.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.1 (-4.1) | 144.3 (+24.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.1 (-4.1) | 145.6 (+23.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.9 (-4.9) | 146.2 (+22.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.6 (-4.6) | 145.2 (+23.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2020 | SAM 65 – 63 KENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#229) | -2.9 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#102) | -1.43 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#128) | -1.55 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#178) | 0.476 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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