Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -8.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.5 (-0.5) | 139.9 (+24.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -6.9 (-2.9) | 139.6 (+24.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -7.4 (-3.4) | 139.8 (+24.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.1 (-3.1) | 140.1 (+23.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#105) | -0.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#100) | 0.25 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#113) | 0.09 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#87) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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