Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +36 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -26.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -24.7 (+11.3) | 151.4 (+24.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -22.5 (+13.5) | 148.7 (+27.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -23.7 (+12.3) | 148.6 (+27.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -24.7 (+11.3) | 149.8 (+26.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#85) | -16.2 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#190) | -1.68 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#148) | -2.18 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#225) | 0.421 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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