Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -1.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -3.9 (+0.1) | 150.7 (-0.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -2.2 (+1.8) | 154.2 (-4.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -2.2 (+1.8) | 155.9 (-5.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -2.8 (+1.2) | 152.0 (-2.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#166) | 3.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#174) | 0.47 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#160) | 0.23 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#149) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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