Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +35 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -16.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -12.6 (+22.4) | 123.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -13.2 (+21.8) | 126.8 (+4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -13.7 (+21.3) | 126.5 (+4.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -13.3 (+21.7) | 126.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 7-21 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 2-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#88) | -6.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#67) | -1.96 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#72) | -1.83 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#69) | 0.381 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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