Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | USC -12.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -9.2 (+4.8) | 138.9 (-18.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -10.1 (+3.9) | 139.4 (-19.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -10.2 (+3.8) | 137.8 (-17.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -9.6 (+4.4) | 138.4 (-18.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-10 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#21) | 0.8 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#5) | 0.17 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.12 (#8) | 0.63 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#8) | 0.479 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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