Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -31.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -27.1 (-3.1) | 153.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -23.2 (+0.8) | 155.6 (-11.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -27.3 (-3.3) | 153.9 (-9.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -27.5 (-3.5) | 152.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 25.3 (#1) | -1.8 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#3) | 1.06 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.13 (#5) | 1.01 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#7) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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