Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -8.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.9 (+9.1) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.4 (+9.6) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -4.9 (+9.1) | 138.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -5.4 (+8.6) | 138.1 (-4.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2020 | MSM 62 – 55 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#320) | -13.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#316) | -2.12 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#323) | -3.49 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#286) | 0.399 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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