Betting Lines
| Spread | UTAH -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +135 UTAH -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UTAH -9.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -6.5 (+14.5) | 137.6 (+20.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTAH -6.9 (+14.9) | 139.0 (+19.0) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -7.8 (+15.8) | 140.1 (+17.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -6.9 (+14.9) | 140.2 (+17.8) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#282) | 8.0 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#241) | 1.22 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#252) | 1.54 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#258) | 0.608 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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