Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -17.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -17.3 (+2.7) | 132.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -16.0 (+4.0) | 136.0 (-8.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -17.1 (+2.9) | 135.3 (-7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -18.7 (+1.3) | 133.9 (-5.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#60) | -5.1 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#32) | -1.56 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#51) | -1.81 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#46) | 0.431 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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