Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -9.8 (-6.8) | 144.4 (-9.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -10.9 (-7.9) | 148.7 (-13.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -10.4 (-7.4) | 149.9 (-14.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -11.7 (-8.7) | 147.5 (-12.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#44) | 3.4 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#69) | 0.95 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#62) | 1.16 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#78) | 0.549 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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