Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +115 USA -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +13 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | USA -2.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.2 (+15.2) | 126.9 (-9.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.0 (+16.0) | 129.4 (-12.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.8 (+15.8) | 128.3 (-11.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.2 (+14.2) | 128.9 (-11.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | USA 69 – 62 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#207) | 6.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.10 (#353) | 1.85 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.73 (#353) | 2.36 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#281) | 0.620 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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