Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
| Money | USA -305 TAR +255 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | USA -13.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.9 (-3.9) | 129.2 (+1.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.4 (-4.4) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -12.8 (-5.8) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -10.7 (-3.7) | 130.2 (+0.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | TAR 65 – 52 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#64) | -1.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#56) | -3.64 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#63) | -5.19 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#14) | 0.417 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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