Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -25.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +33 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -22.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -20.7 (+12.3) | 127.6 (+3.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -18.0 (+15.0) | 130.9 (+0.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -19.6 (+13.4) | 128.8 (+2.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -18.8 (+14.2) | 124.4 (+6.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 3-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#92) | -13.0 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#140) | -2.90 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#89) | -4.45 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#143) | 0.417 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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