Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.0 Push |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +14 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -11.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -11.8 (+2.2) | 126.6 (-20.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -8.3 (+5.7) | 130.2 (-24.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -10.1 (+3.9) | 128.7 (-22.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -9.8 (+4.2) | 126.4 (-20.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#121) | -4.2 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#106) | 0.25 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#118) | 0.34 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#89) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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