Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +18 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -1.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-37.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -4.5 (-22.5) | 147.3 (-29.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -2.9 (-20.9) | 152.9 (-34.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.8 (-20.8) | 153.4 (-35.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.2 (-21.2) | 151.3 (-33.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2020 | RGV 81 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#312) | -5.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#231) | -0.74 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#220) | -0.76 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#329) | 0.483 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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