Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -28.0 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +31 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -32.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -24.8 (+6.2) | 156.8 (-13.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.6 (+6.4) | 155.4 (-12.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -29.7 (+1.3) | 157.7 (-14.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -29.3 (+1.7) | 155.7 (-12.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#8) | -9.4 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#18) | -2.24 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#16) | -3.18 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#23) | 0.423 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.3% | 39.8% |
Game Analysis
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