Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +24 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | INST -14.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -14.0 (+10.0) | 139.4 (-29.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.7 (+13.3) | 142.2 (-32.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.2 (+12.8) | 141.9 (-31.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -10.4 (+13.6) | 142.3 (-32.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#199) | -10.5 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#192) | -1.37 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#194) | -1.65 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.418 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 38.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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