I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–15 on winners spread MAE 12.2 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee +24.3 129.0 90% 49–103 ✓
Iona @ Rider +2.9 142.3 66% 70–56 ✗
Davidson @ Rhode Island +6.9 140.0 78% 67–58 ✗
Northwestern State @ Tulsa +12.3 149.2 86% 55–82 ✓
Western Carolina @ Charleston -0.0 156.5 43% 76–70 ✓
Belmont @ Tennessee State -1.4 143.1 42% 88–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Northern Illinois +7.3 135.6 78% 54–64 ✓
Florida A&M @ Georgia Tech +10.9 150.2 85% 64–74 ✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +1.7 157.8 54% 69–67 ✗
Iowa State @ West Virginia +15.9 144.6 90% 65–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Utah State +3.4 142.8 67% 50–63 ✓
Idaho @ Utah +8.8 140.8 79% 41–79 ✓
Montana State @ Washington State +1.9 137.9 56% 54–82 ✓
Air Force @ Nevada +8.5 131.5 82% 57–74 ✓
Weber State @ Portland State -2.5 138.0 41% 94–66 ✓
Butler @ Indiana +11.5 138.7 84% 60–68 ✓
Iowa @ Gonzaga -0.6 171.3 53% 88–99 ✗
Louisville @ Wisconsin +3.6 134.2 56% 48–85 ✓
Troy @ Auburn +7.5 133.3 78% 41–77 ✓
The Citadel @ Longwood +4.2 140.3 63% 91–89 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Elon +7.4 132.8 78% 71–64 ✗
James Madison @ East Carolina +12.2 141.3 87% 64–73 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +4.0 143.3 66% 57–67 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky -6.7 132.9 24% 75–63 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Alabama +8.3 150.4 77% 73–71 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -1.3 139.5 43% 61–39 ✓
Hofstra @ St. Bonaventure +7.8 146.4 80% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.3 141.6 36% 85–68 ✓
Grambling @ Tulane +4.8 129.1 67% 65–77 ✓
High Point @ William & Mary +10.3 155.6 82% 71–49 ✗
Milwaukee @ Green Bay -8.7 150.2 22% 68–65 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky -0.9 145.1 43% 64–79 ✗
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -2.2 134.9 41% 93–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Toledo +10.7 143.8 82% 57–71 ✓
Stony Brook @ Binghamton +3.9 139.3 65% 73–59 ✗
Maine @ Hartford — — — 60–63 —
Lamar @ Louisiana Tech +11.9 137.1 86% 57–86 ✓
Texas State @ Denver -3.6 131.4 31% 70–68 ✓
Notre Dame @ Purdue +7.6 141.0 78% 78–88 ✓
Ole Miss @ Dayton -1.9 127.1 34% 62–65 ✗
Portland @ Oregon +18.1 155.6 90% 41–80 ✓
Rice @ Sam Houston -3.3 142.6 35% 69–82 ✗
South Alabama @ Alabama A&M +12.2 149.7 87% 90–93 ✓
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +3.6 130.6 62% 47–60 ✓
Chattanooga @ UAB +13.4 140.9 85% 69–66 ✗
Jacksonville @ Miami +7.8 136.0 76% 64–73 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -12.2 148.0 18% 100–69 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte +13.5 133.8 87% 72–76 ✓
Furman @ Winthrop +6.2 156.3 74% 71–87 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara +8.5 127.6 83% 61–81 ✓
Campbell @ NC State +18.2 149.8 90% 50–69 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany — — — 65–64 —
NJIT @ Temple — — — 60–72 —
Delaware @ La Salle +3.6 126.5 63% 61–71 ✓
Samford @ Kennesaw State -3.5 142.0 33% 65–63 ✓
UCLA @ Ohio State -1.6 144.2 44% 70–77 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ California +2.2 136.6 56% 56–87 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Monmouth -1.3 147.7 48% 78–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ Oklahoma +23.0 155.9 91% 65–84 ✓
Coppin State @ Virginia Tech +16.7 138.6 90% 57–97 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Pepperdine +3.4 154.1 63% 75–63 ✗
Buffalo @ Syracuse +14.2 145.2 87% 96–107 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -10.0 140.5 21% 80–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.