Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | MIA -2000 JAX +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -11.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -6.0 (+3.0) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -7.8 (+1.2) | 136.0 (+1.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -8.1 (+0.9) | 135.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -8.5 (+0.5) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 4, 2025 | MIA 86 – 69 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#172) | -7.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#182) | -0.02 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#194) | 0.02 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#179) | 0.506 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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