Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | W&M -280 HPU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +22 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -11.0 (-33.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-42.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -10.3 (-32.3) | 155.6 (-35.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -6.5 (-28.5) | 150.6 (-30.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -9.7 (-31.7) | 155.4 (-35.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -10.4 (-32.4) | 156.4 (-36.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 6-11 |
| Home | 1-3 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#95) | -2.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#120) | -1.77 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#126) | -2.39 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#208) | 0.406 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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