Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -475 CSUN +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +31 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -1.4 (+29.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.2 (+28.8) | 136.6 (+6.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.4 (+29.6) | 133.4 (+9.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.5 (+29.5) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.1 (+28.9) | 137.8 (+5.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 4-7 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#212) | -0.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#222) | -0.03 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#229) | -0.16 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#226) | 0.468 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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