Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Horizon League · Calihan Hall · December 19, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread WRST -5.0 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money DETM +195 / WRST -230
Model Predictions
Spread Total DETM win
Actual WRST +23 163 Lost
Massey WRST -0.8 (-22.2) — —
Massey Totals — 132.3 (+30.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 22% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 14% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML WRST -2.2 (-20.8) 134.9 (+28.1) 41% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WRST -1.2 (-21.8) 143.3 (+19.7) 44% ✓
Baseline Plus ML WRST -1.9 (-21.1) 144.7 (+18.3) 46% ✓
Baseline ML WRST -2.2 (-20.8) 136.0 (+27.0) 38% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2026 WRST 66 – 63 DETM
Feb 13, 2026 DETM 77 – 74 WRST
Jan 10, 2026 WRST 84 – 82 DETM
Jan 25, 2025 WRST 67 – 50 DETM
Dec 7, 2024 WRST 80 – 72 DETM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DETM WRST
Overall 12-10 18-6
Conference 10-6 16-4
Home 7-5 9-4
Away 5-5 9-2
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 1-3 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.5 82.0
Avg Pts Against 74.0 67.4
Massey 0.0 (#149) 5.6 (#85)
Bradley-Terry -1.07 (#229) 1.05 (#93)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.25 (#213) 1.58 (#89)
RPI 0.443 (#218) 0.633 (#33)
Shooting & Four Factors DETM WRST
FG% 37.9% 46.4%
3PT% 28.9% 30.8%
REB / G 34.2 44.3
OREB / G 10.2 10.7
AST / TO 1.18 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.3% 51.9%
TOV% 13.6% 21.3%
ORB% 25.3% 29.4%
FT Rate 20.3% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 39.7%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 16.6%
DRB% 67.1% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 16.9% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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