Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | SBU -750 HOF +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -8.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -7.8 (+0.2) | 148.5 (-2.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -7.8 (+0.2) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#121) | -1.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | -0.30 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#96) | -1.06 (#204) |
| RPI | — | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 7.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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