Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -230 IOWA +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +11 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -2.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 187.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.6 (+11.6) | 171.3 (+15.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -1.6 (+12.6) | 171.7 (+15.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -0.2 (+10.8) | 173.2 (+13.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -0.4 (+10.6) | 174.6 (+12.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-1 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 15-0 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-0 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 12-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.0 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#9) | 18.5 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#1) | 2.15 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.07 (#1) | 3.84 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.862 (#1) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 2.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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