Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -170 CIT +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +2 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -7.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.4 (-6.4) | 141.2 (+38.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -3.9 (-5.9) | 143.6 (+36.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -4.2 (-6.2) | 140.3 (+39.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | LONG 75 – 70 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#175) | -3.9 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#288) | 0.39 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#281) | 0.36 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.320 (#306) | 0.468 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 81.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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