Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -240 UTM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -3.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.9 (-38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -1.7 (-3.7) | 157.8 (-21.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.5 (-4.5) | 156.5 (-20.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -1.7 (-3.7) | 155.0 (-19.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 8-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#234) | -2.8 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#247) | 0.87 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#250) | 1.02 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#267) | 0.625 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 47.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 85.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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