Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | USM -140 ULM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +13 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | USM -4.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -3.6 (+9.4) | 130.6 (-23.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.7 (+9.3) | 128.7 (-21.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -3.2 (+9.8) | 130.9 (-23.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.6 (+9.4) | 131.0 (-24.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
Game Analysis
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