But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–10 on winners spread MAE 9.4 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
San Diego @ UC Irvine +1.5 136.0 51% 53–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.2 135.9 76% 63–61 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Florida International +12.9 148.3 87% 103–99 ✗
Iona @ Rider -1.4 138.4 45% 72–64 ✓
Oakland @ UIC +11.0 140.5 86% 72–74 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford +3.6 138.8 63% 75–78 ✓
McNeese @ Louisiana +16.4 151.2 89% 65–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia +10.3 142.6 82% 68–83 ✓
Northwestern State @ Missouri State — — — 67–94 —
Radford @ Vanderbilt +9.6 130.4 77% 50–59 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bradley +11.9 132.8 85% 68–69 ✓
Colorado State @ Saint Mary's +6.4 141.3 74% 33–53 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Villanova +19.5 162.0 90% 68–88 ✓
UCF @ Florida State +14.8 133.6 88% 86–74 ✗
Cal Poly @ Loyola Marymount +14.0 138.2 87% 52–76 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +2.9 151.4 67% 76–74 ✗
Illinois @ Rutgers +2.2 147.8 63% 88–91 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +10.5 140.6 84% 45–60 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas +8.8 141.0 80% 74–77 ✓
Northeastern @ Old Dominion +3.2 144.3 63% 62–66 ✓
Robert Morris @ Marshall +19.7 146.4 91% 71–85 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan -8.4 131.9 21% 72–67 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Arkansas +21.6 154.2 91% 76–87 ✓
Milwaukee @ Green Bay -5.5 142.9 28% 74–62 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -7.1 143.0 26% 85–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Binghamton -0.3 137.1 42% 80–70 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany -1.5 136.2 42% 65–60 ✓
Maine @ Hartford +3.7 132.1 66% 50–65 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +7.6 146.0 80% 88–91 ✓
Chicago State @ Drake +25.0 140.9 91% 67–111 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +3.9 144.4 70% 70–60 ✗
Weber State @ Portland State -11.2 147.6 18% 72–74 ✗
Alcorn State @ Houston +24.0 140.7 91% 55–88 ✓
Providence @ Seton Hall +10.2 149.2 83% 80–77 ✗
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.6 135.6 75% 89–80 ✗
Oakland @ UIC +10.8 141.1 86% 73–90 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +11.0 150.8 84% 81–63 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +10.6 133.4 86% 68–66 ✗
Delaware State @ Georgia Tech +21.5 158.8 90% 69–97 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +2.9 156.3 64% 83–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.