Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -31.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GT -10000 DSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +28 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | GT -30.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -21.5 (+6.5) | 158.8 (+7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -21.6 (+6.4) | 159.7 (+6.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -28.3 (-0.3) | 155.0 (+11.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -27.1 (+0.9) | 156.7 (+9.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#95) | -21.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#117) | -1.48 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#92) | -2.51 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#114) | 0.401 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 31.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 61.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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